Who are the swing voters in America?
We interrogated a dataset of 49,000 people to find out
DURING HIS two previous presidential campaigns, Donald Trump never led general-election polling averages for a single day. In 2016 he pulled within a percentage point of Hillary Clinton in July and September, but trailed in the opinion polls by four on election day. Four years later Joe Biden enjoyed a large, stable advantage over Mr Trump throughout the race, and ended it with an eight-point edge, according to pollsters. In both contests such surveys sharply underestimated the support Mr Trump received on election day, particularly in swing states.
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This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition under the headline “The parent trap”
United States April 13th 2024
From the April 13th 2024 edition
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