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What to make of Russia’s prisoner swap

The Intelligence - What to make of Russia’s prisoner swap | Podcasts | The Economist

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Tense exchange: Russia’s prisoner swap

A plane carrying Paul Whelan, Evan Gershkovich and Alsu Kurmasheva, all prisoners freed by Russia, sits parked on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews

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The biggest exchange of prisoners between Russia and the West since the Cold War included opposition leaders, journalists and prisoners of conscience. Our correspondent accompanies America’s defence secretary on a tour of Asia designed to bolster military alliances (12:17). And why King Charles counts his swans every year (21:15). Runtime: 27 min

The biggest <a href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/08/01/the-deal-that-freed-evan-gershkovich-was-not-just-a-prisoner-swap?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners" target="_blank">exchange of prisoners</a> between Russia and the West since the Cold War included opposition leaders, journalists and prisoners of conscience. Our correspondent accompanies America’s defence secretary on a tour of Asia designed to <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2024/07/27/america-recreates-a-warfighting-command-in-japan?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners" target="_blank">bolster military alliances</a> (12:17). And why King Charles <a href="https://www.economist.com/britain/2024/07/25/how-king-charles-iii-counts-his-swans?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners" target="_blank">counts his swans</a> every year (21:15). Runtime: 27 min

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Rosie Blau [00:00:10] Hello, and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I’m your host, Rosie Blau. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. America’s defense secretary has been touring Asia to beef up alliances and military strength in the region, including a new war fighting command in Japan. Our correspondent went with him. And every year in Britain there is a census not of people, but of swans, specifically swans that belong to the king. Yes, you heard that right. It’s an 800 year old ceremony and it takes five days. Swan upping. You might love it if you tried it. But first. It could have been a scene from a Cold War spy thriller. Seven aircraft from six countries carrying dissidents, spies, mercenaries and journalists all flying into a neutral country, their passengers disembarking before being traded and boarding jets bound for home. But this wasn’t a movie. It was the largest prisoner exchange between the West and Russia since the Cold War. Among those released was Evan Gush Kvetch, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris welcomed him and another two Americans back onto U.S. soil. Their relief was one shared by friends, family and colleagues watching the images from all over the world.

Rosie Blau [00:00:10] Hello, and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I’m your host, Rosie Blau. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. America’s defense secretary has been touring Asia to beef up alliances and military strength in the region, including a new war fighting command in Japan. Our correspondent went with him. And every year in Britain there is a census not of people, but of swans, specifically swans that belong to the king. Yes, you heard that right. It’s an 800 year old ceremony and it takes five days. Swan upping. You might love it if you tried it. But first. It could have been a scene from a Cold War spy thriller. Seven aircraft from six countries carrying dissidents, spies, mercenaries and journalists all flying into a neutral country, their passengers disembarking before being traded and boarding jets bound for home. But this wasn’t a movie. It was the largest prisoner exchange between the West and Russia since the Cold War. Among those released was Evan Gush Kvetch, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris welcomed him and another two Americans back onto U.S. soil. Their relief was one shared by friends, family and colleagues watching the images from all over the world.

Oliver Carroll [00:01:57] So I’m still getting over seeing these images of the plane on the town markets, Andrews airbase, seeing even the US president.

Oliver Carroll [00:01:57] So I’m still getting over seeing these images of the plane on the town markets, Andrews airbase, seeing even the US president.

Rosie Blau [00:02:08] Oliver Carroll is the economist correspondent in Ukraine.

Rosie Blau [00:02:08] Oliver Carroll is the economist correspondent in Ukraine.

Oliver Carroll [00:02:12] Evans put us through a lot of worry just to get Joe Biden’s contacts. I mean, I joke, but you couldn’t fail to be moved by, oh, just the press conference which Joe Biden put together as they were waiting for that plane to arrive, where he sang Happy Birthday to the daughter of Alice. You caught my shoulder, you know, covering the world at the moment. Such days, they’re really rare. And you have to take them when they come.

Oliver Carroll [00:02:12] Evans put us through a lot of worry just to get Joe Biden’s contacts. I mean, I joke, but you couldn’t fail to be moved by, oh, just the press conference which Joe Biden put together as they were waiting for that plane to arrive, where he sang Happy Birthday to the daughter of Alice. You caught my shoulder, you know, covering the world at the moment. Such days, they’re really rare. And you have to take them when they come.

Rosie Blau [00:02:38] Were there signs that this exchange was in the works?

Rosie Blau [00:02:38] Were there signs that this exchange was in the works?

Oliver Carroll [00:02:41] It was never over until it was over. But there certainly were signals that big exchange was in the works. First of all, we saw with Evans sentencing, which, as I reported at the time, was brought forward unusually, which has in the past at least tended to pre-date releases. And then we saw the pardoning of Rico Klingler, a German missionary who had somehow found his way into Belarus and been sentenced to death. And then we saw prisoners held in Russia starting to go missing, which either was a good sign, or it meant they were being brought together for some kind of torture session. Who knows? But it did look certainly before yesterday that everything was coming together. So great news.

Oliver Carroll [00:02:41] It was never over until it was over. But there certainly were signals that big exchange was in the works. First of all, we saw with Evans sentencing, which, as I reported at the time, was brought forward unusually, which has in the past at least tended to pre-date releases. And then we saw the pardoning of Rico Klingler, a German missionary who had somehow found his way into Belarus and been sentenced to death. And then we saw prisoners held in Russia starting to go missing, which either was a good sign, or it meant they were being brought together for some kind of torture session. Who knows? But it did look certainly before yesterday that everything was coming together. So great news.

Rosie Blau [00:03:26] All you’ve talked about Evan before on the show, who else was on that plane out of Russia with him?

Rosie Blau [00:03:26] All you’ve talked about Evan before on the show, who else was on that plane out of Russia with him?

Oliver Carroll [00:03:33] So the exchange basically involves 24 people, 16 of those going west, eight returning to Russia, plus two minors. There are various categories of the people who are on board that plane that were U.S. citizens and green card holders, journalists, as we’ve spoken about, but also, interestingly, dissidents and Russian opposition figures with either Russian citizenship or joint citizenship. There is particularly two figures looking me, Karamazov and Eliasson, who might now be considered, you know, the real leaders of the Russian opposition. And they had been held in Russian prisoners with these demonstratively long prison sentences. We saw Paul Wieland. He’d been the longest held detainee. He’s been in prison since 2018, a US marine who essentially was arrested when he was in Moscow attending a friend’s wedding. And so the youngest prisoner, 19 year old Kevin Lake, who was the youngest ever person to be convicted for treason. He was 17 at the time and the oldest 71 year old, a legal of a heavyweights of the Russian dissident movement and an activist since the Soviet era. And we knew from back in February, when the colleagues of the killed opposition leader Alexey Navalny, who was essentially murdered in prison, basically outlined how the deal was supposed to look. It was supposed to be Alexei Navalny headlining the list going westward, but pretty much the same list going eastward.

Oliver Carroll [00:03:33] So the exchange basically involves 24 people, 16 of those going west, eight returning to Russia, plus two minors. There are various categories of the people who are on board that plane that were U.S. citizens and green card holders, journalists, as we’ve spoken about, but also, interestingly, dissidents and Russian opposition figures with either Russian citizenship or joint citizenship. There is particularly two figures looking me, Karamazov and Eliasson, who might now be considered, you know, the real leaders of the Russian opposition. And they had been held in Russian prisoners with these demonstratively long prison sentences. We saw Paul Wieland. He’d been the longest held detainee. He’s been in prison since 2018, a US marine who essentially was arrested when he was in Moscow attending a friend’s wedding. And so the youngest prisoner, 19 year old Kevin Lake, who was the youngest ever person to be convicted for treason. He was 17 at the time and the oldest 71 year old, a legal of a heavyweights of the Russian dissident movement and an activist since the Soviet era. And we knew from back in February, when the colleagues of the killed opposition leader Alexey Navalny, who was essentially murdered in prison, basically outlined how the deal was supposed to look. It was supposed to be Alexei Navalny headlining the list going westward, but pretty much the same list going eastward.

Rosie Blau [00:05:05] Do you know anything about how these former captives are doing?

Rosie Blau [00:05:05] Do you know anything about how these former captives are doing?

Oliver Carroll [00:05:08] Well, I mean, judging by the footage, we can see that Evans lost a bit of weight, but he still is the Evan, you know, I know and love. Generous, full spirited, all round kind of good guy. We saw Paul Whelan also appeared to be in pretty good health. There had been rumors he had been of poor health recently, but he looked okay.

Oliver Carroll [00:05:08] Well, I mean, judging by the footage, we can see that Evans lost a bit of weight, but he still is the Evan, you know, I know and love. Generous, full spirited, all round kind of good guy. We saw Paul Whelan also appeared to be in pretty good health. There had been rumors he had been of poor health recently, but he looked okay.

Clip [00:05:27] You know, it didn’t feel real until we were flying over England. I’m a British citizen, Irish citizen, Canadian and American. So as we came over England and I looked down, you know, that’s when it became real. So looking forward to seeing my family down here and just recuperating from five years, seven months and five days of just absolute nonsense by the Russian government.

Clip [00:05:27] You know, it didn’t feel real until we were flying over England. I’m a British citizen, Irish citizen, Canadian and American. So as we came over England and I looked down, you know, that’s when it became real. So looking forward to seeing my family down here and just recuperating from five years, seven months and five days of just absolute nonsense by the Russian government.

Oliver Carroll [00:05:47] Down we didn’t see. We know he has had health problems. We did see images of a phone call released by the white House, which showed the first exchanges, in particular Kara-Murza with his family.

Oliver Carroll [00:05:47] Down we didn’t see. We know he has had health problems. We did see images of a phone call released by the white House, which showed the first exchanges, in particular Kara-Murza with his family.

Clip [00:06:03] Every time he did.

Clip [00:06:05] Now we’re in the Oval Office.

Clip [00:06:05] Now we’re in the Oval Office.

Clip [00:06:09] No, no one is strong enough for this. I was sure I’m going to die in prison because I don’t believe what’s happening. I still think it’s a I still think I’m sleeping in my prison cell. And instead of hearing your voice. But I just want you to know that you’ve done a wonderful thing by saving so many people. I think there were 16 I left on a plate again. I still can’t believe it’s happening.

Clip [00:06:09] No, no one is strong enough for this. I was sure I’m going to die in prison because I don’t believe what’s happening. I still think it’s a I still think I’m sleeping in my prison cell. And instead of hearing your voice. But I just want you to know that you’ve done a wonderful thing by saving so many people. I think there were 16 I left on a plate again. I still can’t believe it’s happening.

Rosie Blau [00:06:28] I’m surprised amongst those you mentioned to hear that the opposition leaders were released, the importance of Kara-Murza and Yashin. And I was also surprised that Navalny might once have been on that list had he not died in February. Sadly. Why would Putin release such important opposition figures?

Rosie Blau [00:06:28] I’m surprised amongst those you mentioned to hear that the opposition leaders were released, the importance of Kara-Murza and Yashin. And I was also surprised that Navalny might once have been on that list had he not died in February. Sadly. Why would Putin release such important opposition figures?

Oliver Carroll [00:06:48] Well, the key is what Putin gets out of the exchange. And the most valuable asset, which we talked about before, is a man called Vadim Classic, who is an FSB colonel, colonel in Russia’s security agency, who had been jailed in Germany after murdering a Chechen rebel in broad daylight in Berlin in 2019. It’s really key to understanding that Putin has always made a virtue of returning his own spies and scoundrels of all kinds. You know, and you saw with the red carpet treatment which they got when they arrived in Moscow. When you came back yesterday.

Oliver Carroll [00:06:48] Well, the key is what Putin gets out of the exchange. And the most valuable asset, which we talked about before, is a man called Vadim Classic, who is an FSB colonel, colonel in Russia’s security agency, who had been jailed in Germany after murdering a Chechen rebel in broad daylight in Berlin in 2019. It’s really key to understanding that Putin has always made a virtue of returning his own spies and scoundrels of all kinds. You know, and you saw with the red carpet treatment which they got when they arrived in Moscow. When you came back yesterday.

Oliver Carroll [00:07:29] You mean it’s kill you? If you want to recruit people to your intelligence services, you need to show that you’re ready to fight for them. And that’s been a really important part of everything that Putin has done as president. You know, Russia will have been pleased that it’s got essentially a transactional deal. And I know that there’s been some talk about this perhaps being a harbinger for a bigger deal with respect to Ukraine. I’m personally not sure that’s true. I think this is a separate deal done on the military and the security level. But I think we also should be fairly clear that this is not a story which is over yet. You know, in 2010, the last big exchange, it was 11 for 11 of the 11 who was sent westwards. One of them included Sergei Skripal, who is, we know, eight years later, was then poisoned with Novichok nerve agent. And actually, one of the things which struck me in all the reaction in Russia was a telegram message by Dmitry Medvedev, the former president, and he said, just find it. Let the traitors feverishly find themselves new names and quickly hide in the witness protection programs. So, you know, the hostage exchange program is a business which always favors hostage takers. And one of the things certainly I said with some of the exchanges in the past, most notably in 2023, when we saw a basketball player exchanged for a very renowned arms trader that it in fact encouraged more hostage taking. The one of the big plus points of this last exchange was that the number heading out of Russia was twice as much as the number heading towards Russia.

Oliver Carroll [00:07:29] You mean it’s kill you? If you want to recruit people to your intelligence services, you need to show that you’re ready to fight for them. And that’s been a really important part of everything that Putin has done as president. You know, Russia will have been pleased that it’s got essentially a transactional deal. And I know that there’s been some talk about this perhaps being a harbinger for a bigger deal with respect to Ukraine. I’m personally not sure that’s true. I think this is a separate deal done on the military and the security level. But I think we also should be fairly clear that this is not a story which is over yet. You know, in 2010, the last big exchange, it was 11 for 11 of the 11 who was sent westwards. One of them included Sergei Skripal, who is, we know, eight years later, was then poisoned with Novichok nerve agent. And actually, one of the things which struck me in all the reaction in Russia was a telegram message by Dmitry Medvedev, the former president, and he said, just find it. Let the traitors feverishly find themselves new names and quickly hide in the witness protection programs. So, you know, the hostage exchange program is a business which always favors hostage takers. And one of the things certainly I said with some of the exchanges in the past, most notably in 2023, when we saw a basketball player exchanged for a very renowned arms trader that it in fact encouraged more hostage taking. The one of the big plus points of this last exchange was that the number heading out of Russia was twice as much as the number heading towards Russia.

Clip [00:09:06] Having me say I was foolish and couldn’t.

Clip [00:09:06] Having me say I was foolish and couldn’t.

Oliver Carroll [00:09:09] Meeting the German Chancellor, Olaf Schultz, did indicate just how difficult it had been for the German states to part with essentially an assassin who’d been arrested on their soil after such a heinous act. Man off the exchange obviously should have been about no one. And the fact that, you know, the Germans were interested in the first place was basically because of not only and they had to be persuaded later that this was the work they put in. You know, he’s got his men back. He’s shown he can get them out of trouble if they do his dirty work. But at the same time, he’s had to pay some price for it. I mean, was frankly, I don’t think has got much of a political future with Eli asking. You’ve got someone who’s young, he’s got a lot fighting him. And he was Boris Nemtsov, his best mate. He’s quite eloquent. He used to be very angry. He’s come down a lot and he looks like a leader. I mean, he was I was a little bit more sort of cerebral, a little bit more reserved. He’s not as charismatic. Everyone was expecting him to die in jail. Frankly.

Oliver Carroll [00:09:09] Meeting the German Chancellor, Olaf Schultz, did indicate just how difficult it had been for the German states to part with essentially an assassin who’d been arrested on their soil after such a heinous act. Man off the exchange obviously should have been about no one. And the fact that, you know, the Germans were interested in the first place was basically because of not only and they had to be persuaded later that this was the work they put in. You know, he’s got his men back. He’s shown he can get them out of trouble if they do his dirty work. But at the same time, he’s had to pay some price for it. I mean, was frankly, I don’t think has got much of a political future with Eli asking. You’ve got someone who’s young, he’s got a lot fighting him. And he was Boris Nemtsov, his best mate. He’s quite eloquent. He used to be very angry. He’s come down a lot and he looks like a leader. I mean, he was I was a little bit more sort of cerebral, a little bit more reserved. He’s not as charismatic. Everyone was expecting him to die in jail. Frankly.

Rosie Blau [00:10:14] The timing on this is surprising. It’s pre-election. The war in Ukraine is still raging. You don’t think this precedes any kind of ceasefire deal? So why do you think it did happen now?

Rosie Blau [00:10:14] The timing on this is surprising. It’s pre-election. The war in Ukraine is still raging. You don’t think this precedes any kind of ceasefire deal? So why do you think it did happen now?

Oliver Carroll [00:10:28] I think the Russians were on one level testing. They were seeing if the Americans were ready to engage in a transactional deal. And they were. But I also think and as I said, in the last time I spoke to about Evan, I did feel that they were likely to leave it to a point where they might have felt they had a better deal with Donald Trump. But I think with all the the excitement and drama of the US at the moment, first of all, it’s unclear who’s going to win. And but second of all, I think they wanted to lock in this deal while they could. And, you know, the people who boarded that plane westward yesterday, that isn’t the extent of Russia’s political prisoners. I was thinking about some of the other people left behind. I was thinking about Alexei Navalny, who didn’t make it. I was thinking about another journalist. It wasn’t even all the political journalists being held in Russia. A good colleague of ours. Finally, Safronov is still in prison, jailed essentially for writing about military corruption. So, you know, I think Putin realized that there’s plenty more chips he can play with. Unfortunately, as I say, this isn’t the end of the deal, is this game is going to continue. It’s one of those things it’s impossible to avoid this moral hazard. But you know the key. As I think President Biden said was, you know, you can’t let innocent people languish in jail. If you have a chance. You really need to make sure that you can do everything to bring them out.

Oliver Carroll [00:10:28] I think the Russians were on one level testing. They were seeing if the Americans were ready to engage in a transactional deal. And they were. But I also think and as I said, in the last time I spoke to about Evan, I did feel that they were likely to leave it to a point where they might have felt they had a better deal with Donald Trump. But I think with all the the excitement and drama of the US at the moment, first of all, it’s unclear who’s going to win. And but second of all, I think they wanted to lock in this deal while they could. And, you know, the people who boarded that plane westward yesterday, that isn’t the extent of Russia’s political prisoners. I was thinking about some of the other people left behind. I was thinking about Alexei Navalny, who didn’t make it. I was thinking about another journalist. It wasn’t even all the political journalists being held in Russia. A good colleague of ours. Finally, Safronov is still in prison, jailed essentially for writing about military corruption. So, you know, I think Putin realized that there’s plenty more chips he can play with. Unfortunately, as I say, this isn’t the end of the deal, is this game is going to continue. It’s one of those things it’s impossible to avoid this moral hazard. But you know the key. As I think President Biden said was, you know, you can’t let innocent people languish in jail. If you have a chance. You really need to make sure that you can do everything to bring them out.

Rosie Blau [00:11:59] Oli Thank you. It’s great to talk to you. Really appreciate it.

Rosie Blau [00:11:59] Oli Thank you. It’s great to talk to you. Really appreciate it.

Oliver Carroll [00:12:02] And a great day to be speaking to you, too.

Oliver Carroll [00:12:02] And a great day to be speaking to you, too.

Clip [00:12:21] United States will upgrade the US forces Japan to a joint force headquarters with expanded missions and operational responsibilities.

Clip [00:12:21] United States will upgrade the US forces Japan to a joint force headquarters with expanded missions and operational responsibilities.

Rosie Blau [00:12:31] On Sunday. On the first part of his trip around the Western Pacific, America’s Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin, announced the creation of a new war fighting command in Japan.

Rosie Blau [00:12:31] On Sunday. On the first part of his trip around the Western Pacific, America’s Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin, announced the creation of a new war fighting command in Japan.

Clip [00:12:41] This will be the most significant change to U.S. Forces Japan since its creation. One of the strongest improvements in our military ties with Japan in 70 years.

Clip [00:12:41] This will be the most significant change to U.S. Forces Japan since its creation. One of the strongest improvements in our military ties with Japan in 70 years.

Rosie Blau [00:12:54] Since the end of the Second World War. American military forces have been present on Okinawa. A 650 kilometer flight from the Chinese coast. But for decades, that base has been on a peacetime footing. That has now changed. Two. I take it as she said. But the good you do go toga! A Japan’s foreign minister, Yoko Mikawa, spoke of China’s military actions in the region as a serious concern. But Russia. And clearly America agrees.

Rosie Blau [00:12:54] Since the end of the Second World War. American military forces have been present on Okinawa. A 650 kilometer flight from the Chinese coast. But for decades, that base has been on a peacetime footing. That has now changed. Two. I take it as she said. But the good you do go toga! A Japan’s foreign minister, Yoko Mikawa, spoke of China’s military actions in the region as a serious concern. But Russia. And clearly America agrees.

Anton La Guardia [00:13:30] I was flying with Lloyd Austin, who was making his 11th tour of the Indo-Pacific.

Anton La Guardia [00:13:30] I was flying with Lloyd Austin, who was making his 11th tour of the Indo-Pacific.

Rosie Blau [00:13:37] Anton La Guardia is the economist diplomatic editor.

Rosie Blau [00:13:37] Anton La Guardia is the economist diplomatic editor.

Anton La Guardia [00:13:41] We landed at the Yokota Air Base outside Tokyo and a brilliant way to avoid Tokyo traffic. We took three Black Hawk helicopters that lifted us into central Tokyo. Whereupon a police convoy of white gloved policemen escorting us through the city. Passed lots of protesters and various traffic jams.

Anton La Guardia [00:13:41] We landed at the Yokota Air Base outside Tokyo and a brilliant way to avoid Tokyo traffic. We took three Black Hawk helicopters that lifted us into central Tokyo. Whereupon a police convoy of white gloved policemen escorting us through the city. Passed lots of protesters and various traffic jams.

Clip [00:14:08] I want you to move in.

Anton La Guardia [00:14:12] And then again in Manila when we flew in much more congested city. Police had a much harder time pushing the convoy through gridlock to Manila traffic, but they did succeed with a lot of wailing sirens. We substantially added to the traffic problem with a 33 vehicle convoy. And that trip was intended to strengthen America’s network of alliances all along the so-called First Island chain, which runs from Japan down to Malaysia.

Anton La Guardia [00:14:12] And then again in Manila when we flew in much more congested city. Police had a much harder time pushing the convoy through gridlock to Manila traffic, but they did succeed with a lot of wailing sirens. We substantially added to the traffic problem with a 33 vehicle convoy. And that trip was intended to strengthen America’s network of alliances all along the so-called First Island chain, which runs from Japan down to Malaysia.

Rosie Blau [00:14:50] And why is the US so particularly concerned now to strengthen security and strengthen alliances in East Asia?

Rosie Blau [00:14:50] And why is the US so particularly concerned now to strengthen security and strengthen alliances in East Asia?

Anton La Guardia [00:14:58] The process has been going on for a few years under this administration. It’s a response to the growing military strength of China, which America and its friends in the region are increasingly worried about. For instance, the Chinese navy is now larger numerically. The American Navy is. So America needs its allies ever more, and they are doing various things to strengthen each other and strengthen themselves. Really, what that involves is strengthening its allies along the first island chain. And in the middle of that chain is Taiwan, which is a likely flashpoint. And if America decided to intervene, that would turn into a major war between America and China that is bound to involve the neighbors in some way.

Anton La Guardia [00:14:58] The process has been going on for a few years under this administration. It’s a response to the growing military strength of China, which America and its friends in the region are increasingly worried about. For instance, the Chinese navy is now larger numerically. The American Navy is. So America needs its allies ever more, and they are doing various things to strengthen each other and strengthen themselves. Really, what that involves is strengthening its allies along the first island chain. And in the middle of that chain is Taiwan, which is a likely flashpoint. And if America decided to intervene, that would turn into a major war between America and China that is bound to involve the neighbors in some way.

Rosie Blau [00:15:49] America has had bases in Japan for a long time. In what ways is it now strengthening those?

Rosie Blau [00:15:49] America has had bases in Japan for a long time. In what ways is it now strengthening those?

Anton La Guardia [00:15:55] The main thing that was announced was the creation of a so called Joint Force headquarters. This is a headquarters that is a warfighting command that would be in charge of coordinating the activities of American forces and exercises then in planning, and ultimately should ever come to it in fighting a war. Now, this is a big change because the main warfighting command for the Americans in the Indo-Pacific is all the way back in Hawaii, more than 7000km away from where the fighting is likely to take place. Having a headquarters forward has dangers there, much closer to the action and much within the range of many hundreds of thousands of Chinese missiles. But at the same time, in a world where communications are likely to be degraded, it’s very hard to try and command your troops from the other side of the ocean. In essence.

Anton La Guardia [00:15:55] The main thing that was announced was the creation of a so called Joint Force headquarters. This is a headquarters that is a warfighting command that would be in charge of coordinating the activities of American forces and exercises then in planning, and ultimately should ever come to it in fighting a war. Now, this is a big change because the main warfighting command for the Americans in the Indo-Pacific is all the way back in Hawaii, more than 7000km away from where the fighting is likely to take place. Having a headquarters forward has dangers there, much closer to the action and much within the range of many hundreds of thousands of Chinese missiles. But at the same time, in a world where communications are likely to be degraded, it’s very hard to try and command your troops from the other side of the ocean. In essence.

Rosie Blau [00:16:58] And has it taken a lot of persuasion to get Japan to strengthen its forces? Japan has shrunk away from military force since the end of the Second World War, and this is a real shift in its attention, isn’t it?

Rosie Blau [00:16:58] And has it taken a lot of persuasion to get Japan to strengthen its forces? Japan has shrunk away from military force since the end of the Second World War, and this is a real shift in its attention, isn’t it?

Anton La Guardia [00:17:11] Yes it is. The Japanese announced plans to almost double defense spending by 2027. They’re also buying all sorts of new weapons, including long range strike missiles that can reach the Chinese mainland. They call them counter strike. The interesting thing here is that to operate them, the Japanese would need a lot of help from the Americans in terms of command and control, in terms of intelligence, to find targets and to strike them. So they need to coordinate more closely. And the Japanese, for the first time, have created their own American style joint headquarters, which uses air, land, sea and other forces to make a more effective hole. So, in part, this new American headquarters is intended to mirror what the Japanese are doing and to coordinate more closely with them.

Anton La Guardia [00:17:11] Yes it is. The Japanese announced plans to almost double defense spending by 2027. They’re also buying all sorts of new weapons, including long range strike missiles that can reach the Chinese mainland. They call them counter strike. The interesting thing here is that to operate them, the Japanese would need a lot of help from the Americans in terms of command and control, in terms of intelligence, to find targets and to strike them. So they need to coordinate more closely. And the Japanese, for the first time, have created their own American style joint headquarters, which uses air, land, sea and other forces to make a more effective hole. So, in part, this new American headquarters is intended to mirror what the Japanese are doing and to coordinate more closely with them.

Rosie Blau [00:18:01] Taiwan is obviously the flashpoint that everyone’s anxious about. How does the new joint Command fit into that potential threat?

Rosie Blau [00:18:01] Taiwan is obviously the flashpoint that everyone’s anxious about. How does the new joint Command fit into that potential threat?

Anton La Guardia [00:18:10] Taiwan is a thing that is on everyone’s mind, but nobody can speak of clearly. So we don’t know actually what this headquarters will do in terms of the defense of Taiwan. Should America choose to intervene? America is not obliged to intervene, but it gives itself that option. And President Biden has said repeatedly that he would. The Japanese say things like they have an interest in maintaining the status quo around Taiwan, but they don’t say what they would do if it came to war. In order to the Philippines, who are the southern neighbor of Taiwan. And we also don’t know how any of these people would be able to fight alongside Taiwan, assuming it does defend itself robustly. And one of the many things the Americans are trying to do is to supply weapons and provide aid to Taiwan so that it becomes more of a porcupine and can therefore hold out longer.

Anton La Guardia [00:18:10] Taiwan is a thing that is on everyone’s mind, but nobody can speak of clearly. So we don’t know actually what this headquarters will do in terms of the defense of Taiwan. Should America choose to intervene? America is not obliged to intervene, but it gives itself that option. And President Biden has said repeatedly that he would. The Japanese say things like they have an interest in maintaining the status quo around Taiwan, but they don’t say what they would do if it came to war. In order to the Philippines, who are the southern neighbor of Taiwan. And we also don’t know how any of these people would be able to fight alongside Taiwan, assuming it does defend itself robustly. And one of the many things the Americans are trying to do is to supply weapons and provide aid to Taiwan so that it becomes more of a porcupine and can therefore hold out longer.

Rosie Blau [00:19:06] And what’s your assessment at the end of this trip and on? Is all this preparation aimed at preventing war from breaking out? Or do you think that the U.S. thinks that it’s readying for something that’s inevitable?

Rosie Blau [00:19:06] And what’s your assessment at the end of this trip and on? Is all this preparation aimed at preventing war from breaking out? Or do you think that the U.S. thinks that it’s readying for something that’s inevitable?

Anton La Guardia [00:19:19] I think the two are connected. The principal aim is to deter an invasion of Taiwan, and particularly deter China from thinking it can do so quickly and painlessly. And to do that, it needs to show it is ready to fight a war and has got the wherewithal, the command systems, the equipment forward, and so on to deny China a quick victory. Of course, nobody knows whether America would intervene. It would be very costly and very painful. And most Americans know little about Taiwan and probably couldn’t find it on a map. And if Donald Trump became president, he has all but said that he wouldn’t defend Taiwan. Which is why I think the Biden administration has been keen to create as many facts on the ground as possible in a way that makes it hard for a future administration to undo.

Anton La Guardia [00:19:19] I think the two are connected. The principal aim is to deter an invasion of Taiwan, and particularly deter China from thinking it can do so quickly and painlessly. And to do that, it needs to show it is ready to fight a war and has got the wherewithal, the command systems, the equipment forward, and so on to deny China a quick victory. Of course, nobody knows whether America would intervene. It would be very costly and very painful. And most Americans know little about Taiwan and probably couldn’t find it on a map. And if Donald Trump became president, he has all but said that he wouldn’t defend Taiwan. Which is why I think the Biden administration has been keen to create as many facts on the ground as possible in a way that makes it hard for a future administration to undo.

Rosie Blau [00:20:11] And have they done that? Anton, is it Trump proof?

Rosie Blau [00:20:11] And have they done that? Anton, is it Trump proof?

Anton La Guardia [00:20:14] Nothing, ultimately is Trump proof because alliances depend on trust, and trust depends on believing that your main protector, which is the United States, is going to turn up to defend you. And you can never be sure of that with Donald Trump.

Anton La Guardia [00:20:14] Nothing, ultimately is Trump proof because alliances depend on trust, and trust depends on believing that your main protector, which is the United States, is going to turn up to defend you. And you can never be sure of that with Donald Trump.

Rosie Blau [00:20:30] Thank you so much, Anton. It’s great to talk to you. Tell me where we can hear more about this. It’s obviously a huge subject.

Rosie Blau [00:20:30] Thank you so much, Anton. It’s great to talk to you. Tell me where we can hear more about this. It’s obviously a huge subject.

Anton La Guardia [00:20:37] So I was in the Philippines and Taiwan earlier this year, and we reported on our travels for our Drum Tower podcast. And you’ll also hear more from my colleague Suellen Wong, who was on a tourist boat in the South China Sea being harassed by the Chinese.

Anton La Guardia [00:20:37] So I was in the Philippines and Taiwan earlier this year, and we reported on our travels for our Drum Tower podcast. And you’ll also hear more from my colleague Suellen Wong, who was on a tourist boat in the South China Sea being harassed by the Chinese.

Rosie Blau [00:20:55] And that’s on our sister show, the Weekend Intelligence. Thanks again. Anton.

Rosie Blau [00:20:55] And that’s on our sister show, the Weekend Intelligence. Thanks again. Anton.

Anton La Guardia [00:20:59] Thank you.

Catherine Nixey [00:21:15] Let’s hope. King Charles the Third, the Most High, most mighty and most excellent monarch of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and of his other realms and territories, as many grand titles, some sensible, and many of them not.

Catherine Nixey [00:21:15] Let’s hope. King Charles the Third, the Most High, most mighty and most excellent monarch of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and of his other realms and territories, as many grand titles, some sensible, and many of them not.

Rosie Blau [00:21:36] Catherine Nixey is a Britain correspondent for The Economist.

Rosie Blau [00:21:36] Catherine Nixey is a Britain correspondent for The Economist.

Catherine Nixey [00:21:39] He is head of the armed forces and his defender of the faith. He is sovereign of the Most Noble Order of the Garter, and he is chieftain of the Braemar Gathering. He is also senior of the Swans, a title which tends to be forgotten partly because it’s completely ridiculous and partly because it doesn’t matter unless you’re a swan. Because this year of the Swans, Charles the Third has won over you. And at this time of year he likes to exercise them. Which is why, on a hot summer day, I took out a rowing boat to follow six small wooden boats as they made their way along the River Thames. This is a totally different Thames to the great gray River that slides through London. This river is much smaller, much gentler, much greener. A few miles upstream, punts are taking to the water in Oxford. A few miles downstream is the house that is said to have inspired Toad of Total, and it feels like that too. Here there is sun on the water. There is wind in the willows. It’s basically perfect. And here is also where the annual Royal Swan trapping census takes place, which is a five day long, 800 year old ceremony in which mature swans and cygnets are caught and counted for the king and mature men dressed up as sailors in scarlet blazers and Breton tops, and shout pull up whenever they see a swan. What this has to do with the King of England is complicated.

Catherine Nixey [00:21:39] He is head of the armed forces and his defender of the faith. He is sovereign of the Most Noble Order of the Garter, and he is chieftain of the Braemar Gathering. He is also senior of the Swans, a title which tends to be forgotten partly because it’s completely ridiculous and partly because it doesn’t matter unless you’re a swan. Because this year of the Swans, Charles the Third has won over you. And at this time of year he likes to exercise them. Which is why, on a hot summer day, I took out a rowing boat to follow six small wooden boats as they made their way along the River Thames. This is a totally different Thames to the great gray River that slides through London. This river is much smaller, much gentler, much greener. A few miles upstream, punts are taking to the water in Oxford. A few miles downstream is the house that is said to have inspired Toad of Total, and it feels like that too. Here there is sun on the water. There is wind in the willows. It’s basically perfect. And here is also where the annual Royal Swan trapping census takes place, which is a five day long, 800 year old ceremony in which mature swans and cygnets are caught and counted for the king and mature men dressed up as sailors in scarlet blazers and Breton tops, and shout pull up whenever they see a swan. What this has to do with the King of England is complicated.

Catherine Nixey [00:23:18] This run up us were entertained at Magna Carta Island by Sir Patrick Hannon MP, and the king’s son must have made a speech. Ladies and gentlemen, the simple explanation of swan upping is this. That every year we come up, come up, the swan belong to the Crown, the vintners company and the dance company. The crown birds are not marked. The present time the vintners buy two marks, one on each side of the beak and the dials by one mark from the right side.

Catherine Nixey [00:23:18] This run up us were entertained at Magna Carta Island by Sir Patrick Hannon MP, and the king’s son must have made a speech. Ladies and gentlemen, the simple explanation of swan upping is this. That every year we come up, come up, the swan belong to the Crown, the vintners company and the dance company. The crown birds are not marked. The present time the vintners buy two marks, one on each side of the beak and the dials by one mark from the right side.

Catherine Nixey [00:23:51] Europe’s monarchs are basically all gone. The powers of those few kings and queens that remain are watered down. And in the case of Charles the Third, weirdly watery. He might have lost almost all his other powers, but he still has the right to claim Britain’s whales, great sturgeons and mute swans as his own.

Catherine Nixey [00:23:51] Europe’s monarchs are basically all gone. The powers of those few kings and queens that remain are watered down. And in the case of Charles the Third, weirdly watery. He might have lost almost all his other powers, but he still has the right to claim Britain’s whales, great sturgeons and mute swans as his own.

Clip [00:24:10] Torn up in history dates right back to the 12th century.

Clip [00:24:10] Torn up in history dates right back to the 12th century.

Catherine Nixey [00:24:14] David Barber is the king’s swan marker.

Catherine Nixey [00:24:14] David Barber is the king’s swan marker.

Clip [00:24:17] It was a very, very important food in that time. Once a year we travel upriver. We will check all the welfare of the swans, and we will lift the young cygnets from the water. We will weigh them, measure them and check them for any injuries.

Clip [00:24:17] It was a very, very important food in that time. Once a year we travel upriver. We will check all the welfare of the swans, and we will lift the young cygnets from the water. We will weigh them, measure them and check them for any injuries.

Catherine Nixey [00:24:35] Once upon a time, the royal swan mark has counted the swans because the king like to eat them. But today his ones are a protected species, so no one can eat them. Even the king. And the census is done instead for education and conservation purposes. Mr. Barber says he wants to modernize one thing, although, given that he’s called the King’s one marker, and given that he’s wearing a cap with a swans feather in it, the pace of his modernization appears to be gentle. I watched as they took this ones from the river, and another small number I spoke to explained what they were doing.

Catherine Nixey [00:24:35] Once upon a time, the royal swan mark has counted the swans because the king like to eat them. But today his ones are a protected species, so no one can eat them. Even the king. And the census is done instead for education and conservation purposes. Mr. Barber says he wants to modernize one thing, although, given that he’s called the King’s one marker, and given that he’s wearing a cap with a swans feather in it, the pace of his modernization appears to be gentle. I watched as they took this ones from the river, and another small number I spoke to explained what they were doing.

Clip [00:25:07] We are just waiting the signals. So that is 4.6. I think that’s good. Yeah. We weigh them, measure their peaks and just check them to make sure they are healthy and safe and in no danger or damage.

Clip [00:25:07] We are just waiting the signals. So that is 4.6. I think that’s good. Yeah. We weigh them, measure their peaks and just check them to make sure they are healthy and safe and in no danger or damage.

Clip [00:25:17] So they might not be sorry.

Clip [00:25:17] So they might not be sorry.

Clip [00:25:20] I don’t think they mind it, but it’s not their choice. They don’t really have much to do, but they say it’s all right. So they’re better when they’re together. Which is why we’re trying to catch the whole right, the whole family.

Clip [00:25:20] I don’t think they mind it, but it’s not their choice. They don’t really have much to do, but they say it’s all right. So they’re better when they’re together. Which is why we’re trying to catch the whole right, the whole family.

Clip [00:25:31] But they get upset if it’s just one thing.

Clip [00:25:31] But they get upset if it’s just one thing.

Clip [00:25:32] If they’re sick, they’re not happy. So it’s tricky. For example, we go.

Clip [00:25:32] If they’re sick, they’re not happy. So it’s tricky. For example, we go.

Catherine Nixey [00:25:41] Swans don’t exactly love being upped. First one being upped as a bit of a downer. Prince Harry once observed that swans grumpy birds and their mood is definitely not improved. If you catch them, hold down their wings, tie their feet and take them out to the river. A swan can’t break a man’s arm. Bob says that that’s a myth, but they can definitely give you a nasty bruise. The trick, as one son explained to me, is to be subtle. In other respects, subtlety is definitely not this one of the strong suits. They start each day with a patriotic toast to the King. On their boats there are pennants and there are flags. The overall effect is less like an environmental study then, as if the cast of The Pirates of Penzance had taken to the river in punts. This one’s might not like it that much, but this is for environmentalism, and it is for the King of England, so they don’t get that much choice in the matter. So much for.

Catherine Nixey [00:25:41] Swans don’t exactly love being upped. First one being upped as a bit of a downer. Prince Harry once observed that swans grumpy birds and their mood is definitely not improved. If you catch them, hold down their wings, tie their feet and take them out to the river. A swan can’t break a man’s arm. Bob says that that’s a myth, but they can definitely give you a nasty bruise. The trick, as one son explained to me, is to be subtle. In other respects, subtlety is definitely not this one of the strong suits. They start each day with a patriotic toast to the King. On their boats there are pennants and there are flags. The overall effect is less like an environmental study then, as if the cast of The Pirates of Penzance had taken to the river in punts. This one’s might not like it that much, but this is for environmentalism, and it is for the King of England, so they don’t get that much choice in the matter. So much for.

Clip [00:26:43] One. Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah yeah, yeah. Sorry, sorry. Yeah.

Clip [00:26:43] One. Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah yeah, yeah. Sorry, sorry. Yeah.

Rosie Blau [00:27:03] That’s all for this episode of The Intelligence. The show’s editors are Chris MP and Jack Gill. Our deputy editor is Jonjo Devlin, and our sound designer is Will Rowe. Our senior producers are Rory Galloway and Sarah Larnach. A senior creative producer is William Warren. Our producers are Maggie and Benji Guy, and our assistant producers are Henrietta macfarlane and Kunal Patel. With extra production help this week from all the shirts, we’ll all see you back here for the weekend. Intelligence tomorrow.

Rosie Blau [00:27:03] That’s all for this episode of The Intelligence. The show’s editors are Chris MP and Jack Gill. Our deputy editor is Jonjo Devlin, and our sound designer is Will Rowe. Our senior producers are Rory Galloway and Sarah Larnach. A senior creative producer is William Warren. Our producers are Maggie and Benji Guy, and our assistant producers are Henrietta macfarlane and Kunal Patel. With extra production help this week from all the shirts, we’ll all see you back here for the weekend. Intelligence tomorrow.

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