American pollsters aren’t sure they have fixed the flaws of 2020
That does not inspire confidence for 2024
AS AMERICA ENTERS a nervous election year, one thing is certain: the opinion polls will be watched closely for clues about the outcome. But how much faith should be placed in them? In the past two presidential cycles they misfired, badly underestimating support for Donald Trump each time. Mr Trump looks likely to be the Republican nominee again. In head-to-head polls he leads Joe Biden by 2.3 points on average. That suggests a toss-up. Polls conducted so far in advance of the election have generally missed by a margin far greater than Mr Trump’s current lead.
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This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition under the headline “Handle with care”
From the January 6th 2024 edition
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